The highest level(s) of influence this method typically matches with on the IAP2 public participation spectrum is…

INFORM
Inform

CONSULT
Consult

INVOLVE
Involve

COLLABORATE
Collaborate

EMPOWER
Empower

Purpose
Gain Feedback and Ideas
Time
Mini Method
Resources
Minimal (1-3) staff members
Budget
Low Cost (under 10k)
Participants
Unlimited

Delphi Processes are a very structured methodology used to research or forecast technological advancements in particular areas with a select group of experts.

Applications of the delphi process can include:

  • Business Forecasting: Used for predicting market trends and making strategic decisions.
  • Research and Development: Helps in assessing the potential of new technologies or products.
  • Policy Making: Utilised in government planning and policy development.

The process sees experts respond to questionnaires about what they believe to be likely or possible developments in particular areas. The outputs from this questionnaire are summarised anonymously and returned to the experts along with a follow up questionnaire. This questionnaire also provides space for participants to refine each idea, comment on their strengths or weaknesses and suggest new ideas.

An additional questionnaire then summarises the input from the second questionnaire and asks for further clarification, strengths, weaknesses, and new ideas. This stage can be repeated as many times as necessary until consensus on key points is reached. The end product is either a consensus amongst the participants on likely and possible future developments and their relative strengths and weaknesses.

Delphi surveys (used as part of the Delphi Process) can be carried out face to face, online, or by post.

Structured process where a panel of experts answer a series of questionnaires (at least two rounds). After each survey, a feedback report and a new survey is circulated. Designed to seek consensus on a complex problem.

What you'll need

Virtual Delivery

  • This method is typically done remotely (either with electronic questionnaires or via the post)
  • Questionnaires
  • Data analysts who can turn around data rapidly

How to guide

Steps to Implement the Delphi Process

  1. Define Objectives
    • Clearly outline the purpose, scope, and specific questions or issues to be addressed by the expert panel.
    • Ensure the objectives are precise to keep the study focused and relevant.
  2. Select a Facilitator
    • Choose a neutral facilitator who will manage the process, distribute questionnaires, summarise responses, and ensure anonymity among participants.
  3. Identify and Recruit Experts
    • Assemble a panel of experts with relevant knowledge and experience in the topic under discussion. These can include professionals from various fields depending on the subject matter.
  4. Design Data Collection Tool
    • Develop questionnaires or templates to gather feedback from experts. These tools should be simple, clear, and tailored to the objectives of the study.
  5. Conduct Round
    • Distribute the first questionnaire to experts, asking for their opinions, forecasts, or suggestions regarding the defined problem or issue.
    • Collect responses and analyse them to identify common themes or areas of divergence.
    • Policy Making: Utilised in government planning and policy development.
  6. Provide Feedback
    • Summarise the results from Round 1 and share them with the panel anonymously. This feedback allows experts to see group trends without revealing individual identities.
  7. Conduct Subsequent Round
    1. Repeat the process with updated questionnaires based on previous feedback. Experts refine their opinions in each round.
    2. Typically, two to four rounds are conducted until consensus or convergence of opinions is achieved.
  8. Analyse Final Results
    • After completing all rounds, analyse the aggregated data to formulate conclusions or recommendations based on expert consensus.
  9. Implement Findings
    • Translate consensus into actionable tasks or decisions. For example, in project management, this may involve creating a roadmap or prioritising features for development.

 

Key Features for Effective Implementation

  • Anonymity: Ensures unbiased responses by preventing influence among participants.
  • Iteration: Allows refinement of opinions over multiple rounds.
  • Facilitated Feedback: Summaries after each round help guide experts toward consensus.

This structured methodology ensures that decisions are informed by collective expertise while minimising biases and conflicts.

TIPS

  •  It is sometimes necessary to allow experts plenty of time (weeks, if not a month) to complete each round of surveys, which can add significant time requirements for your project.
  • People can freely express their opinions and critique ideas as anonymity is maintained throughout the process. Discussions are not dominated by one participant’s authority or personality.